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The transition to electric vehicles

Discussion in 'The Coffee Shop' started by Yellow Fang, 20 Jul 2011.

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Would you drive an electric car ?

  1. Yes, they are Eco-friendly, and the car of the future.

    100.0%
  2. No, nothing will replace gas for long distance travel

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Location:
    UK
    https://phys.org/news/2018-10-electric-cars-hazard-people.html

    "Electric cars are good for the environment – but not for people who cannot see. They have problems detecting the silent vehicles. However, Norwegian research scientists are working on a solution"

    Disappointingly their solution is to add artificial noise. Not very imaginative and not a good solution for reducing noise pollution.

    I thought of a better solution the first time I heard about this problem. Use a short range radio signal that is inaudible to all but can easily be converted into an audio signal for blind people. With the right tech you could possibly even and in direction and speed notification. I can't see why that would not work and all you would need is a little device or your phone to use the system when you get to a road.
     
  2. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Location:
    UK
    I've been doing a bit of 'back of the beer mat' calculations and I think the future looks good for electric transportation.

    Let's start with cars. As far as I can work out there is about 100 million new cars sold globally every year. This year it looks like there will be about 1 million new electric cars sold. The number of electric cars sold each year seems to be doubling year on year. There are a lot of companies without an electric version of their cars who are planning to launch their first electric cars over then next couple of years.

    There are two main driving forces causing this rapid acceleration. Firstly there is Tesla, who are on track to make half a million cars next year which would make up half the cars sold this year. This is starting to worry some of the big car makers. Give Tesla too long and they will be starting to get a very large slice of the pie. They are already hitting profits on similar prices petrol/diesel cars where the people with that sort of money are switching to Tesla or putting off buying a car till there is an electric car they like. Tesla has also just turned a profit, added a new light weight car a few grand cheaper and is nicely ramping up production. This is forcing more companies to roll out their cars so Tesla don't have too big a market lead. The big boy have a few years till Tesla gets really scary and may bring out the car at the right price point to enter the mass market and really start to hurt their sales. So reluctantly they will have to put out electric cars, which will increase the number on the road and I reckon by 2020 every brand will have an electric model and the market size will be about 5% of all new cars. By 2022 that could raise to 20% or more depending on how quickly the price drops. By 2025 it could be close to 75% and by the end of the decade there will only be a handful of non-electric cars for the enthusiast.

    The other big driving force is China, who already account for 40% of all electric car sales and only about 30% of all cars are sold in China. It's a big population and there are starting to be people getting their first car there that is electric. They may well never drive a petrol/diesel car in their life. Also if China maintains it's lead then they will have the infrastructure built out and along with their continued roll out of renewable energy, electrical grid and storage, they have the potential to be the first large country to go fully electric. They seem to have the political will to try and do this as fast as possible. With a target of 7 million electric cars on the road by 2025. I think they will smash that. I'd not be surprised if they are selling 7 million electric cars a year by 2025 and have 10-20 million cars on the road.
     
  3. Yellow Fang

    Yellow Fang Veteran Geek

    Location:
    Reading
    Yes, it would probably have some minimalist Scandanavian appeal, but you'd need an Apple charging nozzle to charge it up.
     
  4. Yellow Fang

    Yellow Fang Veteran Geek

    Location:
    Reading
    Not electric cars, but it looks like more rail lines are being electrified. I don't seen so many live rails any more, but there are more tracks with overhead rails.
     
  5. Yellow Fang

    Yellow Fang Veteran Geek

    Location:
    Reading
    I reckon if everything is to go over to electric, including transport and heating, we will probably need to start building a lot more nuclear. I was watching Dave MacKay giving a Ted Talk. The amount of space we'd have to devote to renenwable energy just to cover what we use now it mind-boggling. Basically the only technology we have right now that could do it is nuclear.
     
  6. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Location:
    UK
    You should have a look at the tidal generation turbines coming on the market now. They have got the design down quite good now, you drop a cradle that is held in place by gravity then lower a turbine onto it and plug it in. Reliable, predictable electrical generation. Our biggest asset is the oceans and we already lead the world in research, we should put it into practice and run the country off the oceans. We could do that easily and power most of Europe too.
     
  7. Yellow Fang

    Yellow Fang Veteran Geek

    Location:
    Reading
    If it's coming on line then good. They must have been working on them for at least a decade. I had a friend who was working for a tidal power company up in the Orkneys. There were some good looking prototypes on the quay, but it seemed to take an awful long time for them to get to market. How much electricity do they generate? The UK peak demand is about 60 GW iirc, but if heating and transport is to go electric, that figure will go up.
     
  8. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Location:
    UK
    One of the technical problems of mass adoption of electric vehicles is coping with a few million batteries trying to charge at the same time. If you plugged in a million cars to charge overnight at the moment the grid would fall over.

    Though not for long.

    https://www.edie.net/news/8/UK-s-energy-storage-sector-has-quadrupled-since-2016--study-finds/

    From almost nothing to GWs of storage in a few years. Within a year or two there will be enough storage to charge a million vehicles overnight without any generation needed. The amount of storage just keeps going up too.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-gas-engine-backup-planned-for-u-k-power-grid

    There is of course a reason for this. We are supplying more and more wind energy to the grid. Wind is one of the most volatile energy generation forms. It can go from producing next to nothing to huge amounts of power if the ideal winds cover the whole country.

    https://www.current-news.co.uk/news...r-winter-as-batteries-used-to-sidestep-triads

    "High renewables output sent inertia from conventional plants falling, and managing significant quantities of wind power raised its own difficulties"

    We were generating more power than we could use. So a distributed gird of large scale batteries is the perfect solution. You can cache generated power near it's source, then move the electricity to other batteries nearer the demand. All in a nice leisurely and organised way.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/business-48764903/guildford-s-buses-go-electric

    For commercial vehicles the final stop will be a battery at your own charging depo. Then you can DC fast charge them from the batteries.

    The trick is to get enough storage to store more than the total possible output of all renewable energy and then keep up with the expansion of renewables. Until you can store a good week or more worth of total energy needs in grid storage. Then you can turn off most of the fossil fuel generators.