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Predicting the next dacade 2020 - 2030

Discussion in 'The Coffee Shop' started by amusicsite, 30 Jan 2020.

  1. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    In a follow up to the last decade in review this thread is looking at some of the disruptive technology just around the corner.

    View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y916mxoio0E

    This is a good introduction into how to predict the future. The TL;DR is look at the rate of change in an industry.

    Over the last century the time it takes for a disruptive technology to go from less than 10% of the market to over 90% has been coming down. Cars took 40 years or more to replace the horse. Electric vehicles could replace all combustion vehicles within a decade. How could it possibly do that? Well here is my prediction...

    By 2022 electric vehicles become more or less the same price as the ICE alternative with the same specs... Or worse for the ICE version. By 2025 there is almost no demand for new ICE vehicles. By 2027 we will start noticing there are less petrol pumps around as less people use them, range anxiety starts to switch to filling up you liquid fuel tank. At the end of the decade you will be able to get a cheap electric vehicle for about the same price as a second hand ICE vehicle would cost now.

    Alongside this, I do think we will get self driving cars. I think most likely Google doing what they did with Android and Tesla probably being the Apple do it yourself alternative. Probably with whichever of the old guard get it right there will be some 'used for a brand' systems like WebOS is to TVs. Also very likely there will be an open source alternative either in development or working in the wild.

    Tesla is currently claiming they have an 8.8x better safety record vs humans and 3 billion miles driven.
    Waymo just broke their 20 million mile and said "It took us a decade to drive the first 10 million miles but just over one year to complete these last 10 million".

    The amount of money, data and experience in the field is increasing exponentially. By 2025 we could well have had 100 billion miles driven around the world on some sort of self driving platform. Encountered most of those one in a million scenarios and worked out how to do the right thing there. Probably well on the way to working out the one in a billion really rare things too. I think it will probably take most of the decade to work out the laws, solve the inevitable problems and get the reliability right. I see it becoming like the aeroplane industry. In the early days there were a lot of aeroplane companies. You had the de Havilland Aircraft Company Limited who designed the world's first commercial jet airliner the DH 106 Comet in 1949. By 1964 the company was gone. One serous problem can shatter people's trust in you, cost a lot to fix and sink you in an instance.

    Think Nokia when they tried to quickly build an OS to rival iOS and Android. Uber learnt the hard way that it's not something to half do right. You have to really nail it from the off and not ask more of it than it can cope with. Google and Tesla are working from opposite ends. Tesla is going for the clock up a lot of miles on the easier roads with very little unusual obstacles. Whereas Google is going more for a really get to know the area and work out how to get around it safely. I think the ultimate self driving platform will have a very detailed map of the roads all over the world, downloading the data for your route / local area on the fly. It will have a series of sensors that allows it to read the environment. I think the humble video camera will be king and the rest will be to backup these cameras.

    The main trick of the OS / software will be to map the video feed onto the map, work out where the movable obstacles are and determine the safe path. Like with the 747 MAX problem, the real trick is reliably handling sensor failure or false information. This is where that map comes in handy. In the event of a problem or confusion, the vehicle should be able to predict how to safely slow down and stop. Probably sending out a car to car alert saying what it's intentions are.

    Once you can safely do all that with very little lag then you are likely to only be a small step away from building a system that is 100x better than a human.

    So back to my prediction of almost no ICE cars in 10 years. I think in 10 years time you will be able to buy an electric car cheaper than even a second hand ICE car. Self driving cars will be real, there will be the Uber type services vastly undercutting any human operated vehicle. These two will combine so almost anyone could roll out a self driving taxi service with very little money. The reduction in demand for petrol will make it more expensive and harder to find and about 80%-90% of all ICE vehicles could have been replaced with an electric drive chain. If not globally at least in the developed world but I think the model will more likely follow the smart phones where electrification and self driving is going to open up travelling around like the mobiles did with communications.
  2. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    I think, following on from the rate of change thing in the last post, that sometime in the next decade we have a massive 'everything changes' year. By this I mean that there are hundreds of massive changes in lots of fields that bring numerous technologies up to next level.

    This is most likely going to happen because of a leap in A.I. but could still happen without. It could just be that we get a series of things like a few biological breakthroughs along with a leap in battery technology and some other radical advances that just happen to all come together.

    Interestingly I saw an article recently saying that the biggest advancement last decade was in the biological areas. We do seem to have moved on quite a bit in that area. I can't say I've noticed many life changing things to come out of that yet but I think that could come in the next decade. Whether it's growing food better, making cleaner organic plastic substitution, more efficient chemical reactions or something like that. Possibly a combination on things that changes how we do things.

    There is a big push to go organic, recycle, use less power and general be nicer to this planet we live on. As well as gearing up for longer periods of living outside our little planet's atmosphere. Biological advances could really help on this front.

    I'm also going to predict that the first successful genetically designed human will we wandering the plant before the end of the decade. There where reports of at least one attempt a year or so ago which seemed to have not worked out. It was done off the radar and it's only going to become easier to attempt. So I think people will try and at least one person will get it working.
  3. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Well obviously did not see that one coming. A global pandemic disrupts EVERYTHING!

    It's hard to predict how this will affect things over the course of the decade. It's obviously going to be disruptive for a few years and possibly a few more years to get back on track to where we were. There is a part of me that thinks this could be just what the world needed. We skip a few shiny updates to our technological toys. There are bound to be a few people who break their phones and have to suffer not having one for a while. Not begin able to pop to a friend and borrow one, not able to pop to the shops and get a new one.

    Maybe it's one of those defining moments where our priorities change after it. Demanding more clean technology, things that last longer or we learn what's really important. Or maybe within a few years it just fades into the background and and becomes yet another 'I remember that' moment.

    There could be a few fringe benefits to us consumers. I'm sure that if this goes on for a few months, which seems likely then some of the smarter companies will be working out how to come back stronger than ever when everything starts again. Whether that will mean adding more automation to their product line, or doing that remote software review. Maybe a re-design of an upcoming product to take advantage of more modern technology and other fine tuning of their business. There has never been a better time to go through that to-do list which you never have time to do in a normal busy world.

    There is plenty of things that could well just carry on without much disruption. Work in the cloud like A.I. research, designing stuff in CAD and of course the online media is breaking all records and some internet backbones. Obviously things like manufacturing hardware is going to be hard but I think you will see the companies that have high levels of automation and can make things with very little staff on site, they could do much better than the companies that need 10's thousands of staff. Which I think will spur more companies to look at automation again.

    Surely if there are no humans on the streets, never had a better time to try out self driving vehicles. Though shared spaces like Uber or rent a self driving car could be a tough sell for a few years. I think people will notice the cleaner air in lock downs but will notice it even more when it goes back to normal. Which could increase demand for electric vehicles. Especially anyone who was planning to buy a new vehicle this year, by the time new stock starts getting made again then ICE vehicles may not be in such high demand. That's if the car industry don't use this shut down to convert more of their production lines over to electric drive chains. They have a nice 3 month window to work on those CAD models, work out what they need and order up the stuff.

    Anyway will be interesting to see how this will play out and the subtle changes it could bring.