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Covid-19

Discussion in 'Biology' started by amusicsite, 5 Mar 2020.

  1. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Location:
    UK
    It appears the modern world was not really that well prepared for a new pandemic. It's now almost certain that this new covid-19 virus will spread to most places on the planet and cause a lot of problems. It also seems like the virus is starting to mutate into a couple of different strains the S and L types as they are currently defined. Though it's still very early days and I think a lot of people don't really understand that we are still in the early stages of this virus.

    So what do we know so far?

    Firstly it spreads really fast. In biological teams this is measured in Basic reproduction number or R0.
    https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

    While we don't know the real number for this at the moment it appears to be anywhere between 2 to 7 for this virus which is fairly high.

    Next is that it seems to have a long incubation period before and after people show symptoms. This means people are spreading it for up to a month even if they only seem ill for a few weeks. This is called the asymptomatic period. So with the large R0 and asymptomatic people it's spreading really fast.

    Next up in it's arsenal is that it's very good at surviving outside the body. The typical flu only lasts a few hours on most surfaces whereas this one can last up to 9 days on some surfaces. Once again helping accelerate the spread.

    Then there is the fatality rate and complication rate of this virus. While about 80% of the infected seem to cope OK, there are about 20% that may need medical support to survive. Of that there seems a few percent that are unlikely to survive even with help. The problem here is that it's spreading so fast that the hospitals could get overwhelmed by that 20% and more of them could die that unusual.

    Finally it's happening in a very connected world and one that seems to be putting the economy ahead of sensible controls to tackle the virus. Ideally we would have grounded all planes, stopped all transport and got most of the world self isolating about a month ago. That could have stopped a lot of the spread. Now it seems like we have moved well beyond that and into the stage of trying to slow down the inevitable spread.

    Finally there seems to be the possibility of catching it a second time or maybe it becoming dormant then springing back to life later. It's too early to tell yet but in similar virus' the second time round it could be even more lethal.
     
  2. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Location:
    UK
    This is one of the best videos I've seen from experts I actually believe what they say. Mostly they say we don't have the data yet. Which is the most honest truth.


    View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dwQkWqWHcw


    I'm sure if you are reading on this forum you probably know about things like exponential growth, parabolic graphs and the like. At the moment we are in an exponential growth rate with the number of cases/deaths seems to be doubling about every 4 or 5 days. To get this down to zero cases then you need to hit the peak of the parabolic graph. At the moment we don't really know if that will happen in a month or 10 years time.

    What we do know is that it is mutating, not extremely fast but there are at least two major strains so far. The S-type and L-type versions. That's after less than 6 months in the human population.

    https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463

    It's way too early to know how this will evolve as it hits different humans around the world. The best hope is it evolves into something less deadly that spreads quickly and helps infected people build up a tolerance to any more deadly version. The worst case is a highly infective version comes along that kills more people.

    It does make me laugh the people who say flu kills more people. FFS! How long has the flu been in the human population compared to this? If you are going to make that comparison then at least wait till we have a full year's worth of data. I think the standard response to this should be.. "Can you please show the scientific data behind this claim? What is the average number of deaths per year from the flu and what is the average number of deaths per year from this virus that has only been in humans for 6 months?". We don't even seem to know the maximum incubation period, how long people can show symptoms, how long it takes to recover, whether it can incubate in a host and resurface later or if you can get reinfected after you have had it. So stupid tabloid comparisons make no sense. I even saw this totally stupid comment from someone on Facebook. "Harold Shipman killed more people in the UK than Corona Virus has!" Even Shipman took 3 years to kill the people, this virus has only been in the UK for a month or two.

    One thing I've learnt from this is that the cause of death is not a globally agreed data point. In the UK if you have cancer then get the flu and die, your death will most likely be recorded as death from flu. While in China if you had the same patient then it would be recorded as death from cancer. Because of this it's really quite hard to say how many people are killed by flu. If that person did not have cancer would flu had killed them? How many people a year die from flu without an underlying condition? These are hard questions to answer. Let alone comparing it to a virus spreading exponentially where we have not built in immunity and it's mutating. Any real scientist will tell you we don't have enough data points yet.

    One thing you can tell is the response and by that I don't mean from the WHO, who seem to have spoke people who are fairly useless at the moment. Nor what the governments in the 50 or so countries with infections are saying.... It's what they are doing that tells you how bad they think this could be. Now lets start with thinking about how easy it is to get 50+ countries to agree on scientific data. You only have to look at climate change to see they rarely agree overnight. Yet within a few months these 50+ countries seem to have agreed that this virus could be something bad. If it's hysteria, media hype or some other conspiracy then I'd love to see the person behind it. They must be a genius.

    I think this is going to hit the western countries hard. South Korea has tested 140,000 people and seem to have a good plan to monitor the situation. The US, by contrast, has tested around 1,500 people and recently avoided the question of whether people on low income could get free tests. It's probably because South Korea learnt the lessons of SARS and MERS on how to handle a virus like this. First you test as many people as possible. Then if you find infected people you let everyone nearby that an infected person has been detected. You isolate infected people and keep the public informed. By contrast the western governments seem reluctant to test, reluctant to let people know where the outbreaks are and have no idea who should be tested or isolated. I think a lot of these countries are going to find it's rampant in their countries too late.
     
  3. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Location:
    UK
    Gold Standard Pandemic Approach

    1) Halt inbound infections
    2) Face masks for everyone
    3) Aggressive free and easy to do testing
    4) Rigorous contact testing
    5) Free treatment, if you don't have a free healthcare system
    6) Quarantine all infected and contacts
    7) Share the data with the public

    I've seen this, or something like it, floating around recently and it seems to work. Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and especially Taiwan have been doing this quite well and as nicely as they can have seemed to keep the spread under control.

    So, what we should have done... Firstly, when it appeared it was spreading fast by the beginning of February at the latest, we should have either shut down all flights and long distance travel. Or at least told people that had to travel long distance then they should be tested upon arrival, self isolate for a week and then get tested again. This helps you monitor the spread and control it.

    We should have been ramping up production of masks. Getting the global supply to the right places where it was spreading and get the right people wearing them. While ramping up supply and informing the public about what your stock are, where they are needed, why they are needed and how well stocked you are. This worked so well in Hong Kong that they ended their flu season a month early and got influenza to a record low as well as keeping the spread of COVID 19 under control.

    In South Korea they have drive up portable test centres where you can drive up, get a test whether you have been told to or if you just feel you should get tested. This helps show where it has spread to and once you find someone with the virus you collect the names, public transport and places they have been in contact with over the last week or so. You contact the individuals you can and tell them they should get tested. For public places you issue local alerts telling people that use that transport or place they should get tested too. Even if they test negative they should self isolate in case they are infective.

    Instead we dragged our heals in the west to prevent markets from dropping a little. Which instead has let the virus spread and the markets have gone into meltdown. The financial impact of actually doing it right would have been a lot less than what it's going to cost us now. All the time people were reassuring us it was not that big a problem just wash your hands... Which is good advice. Instead they should have been telling us not to travel unless necessary. think about reducing your points of contact. Work from home if you can. Shut down the schools, places of worship, large gartering and the like. At least until you can issue enough face masks to give one to everyone, when you do then you can start opening them again.

    It would have been a pain in the ass and a hard sell but that's what we should have done. I fear that our leaders still don't really get it and it's suddenly going to be overloading a lot of countries who thought they could put it off and cope. FFS we had 60,000 untested people without face masks at a football game the other day as the death toll hit 10. When you factor in up to 6 day incubation period where you may not know you have it. People with the virus that show little signs and exponential growth. That single event could have infected enough new people to overflow a dozen hospitals. I fear we have acted too little too late here in the UK.

    At the moment if Europe it's all eyes on Italy and keep watch on how well they are coping. Our leader said we are 4 weeks behind them, I've heard it's more like 13-14 days. Going to be a telling couple of weeks.
     
  4. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Location:
    UK
    4 days ago on about the 8th March I knocked this up. The theory was that the virus is doubling every 4-6 days when your not on top of it. So I started with one UK case on the 7th, which I think there were a couple by then but started low. Then I took the average of doubling it every 5 days. Today is the 12th and we are on 10 dead not 2. Italy is up to 1,000+ dead. If you do the nice doubling every 5 days maths that is indeed about 4 weeks from 10 to 1,000. If it's more prominent than you think then those numbers can suddenly start jumping up and break the nice mathematical model. Anyway though it would be interesting to track it over the next few weeks and see how the UK stacks up to the model.

    7th March 1 death
    12th 2 deaths <---- We are here with 10 dead.
    17th 4 deaths
    22nd 8 deaths
    27th 16 deaths
    1st April 32 deaths
    6th 64 deaths
    11th 128 deaths
    16th 256 deaths
    21st 512 deaths
    26th 1,024 deaths
    1st May 2,048 deaths
    6th 4,096 deaths
    11th 8,192 deaths
    16th 16,384 deaths
    21st 32,768 deaths
    26th 65,536 deaths
     
  5. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Location:
    UK
    The original list I did was a few days out so I've refreshed the dates to match our first recorded death. This is the model for doubling every 5 days and the jump in real deaths seems to show a doubling every 2.5 days. Considering we have only done something like 40,000 test means we really don't know the real numbers at the moment. The general consensus is the you have to do test. Lots of tests and even re-test people. Tens of thousands of them every day. I've not heard any real figures on how fast we are ramping up supply of tests, how hard they are to make or how long it's going to take to get us to a point where we are testing enough. The first priority has to be to get the data so we know how bit the problem is. Once we know the data we can start working on keeping low infection areas clean and try stopping the spread in the bad areas.

    My view is we should have shut the country down on the 10th for 9 days. We would have had time to do it gradually so places like restaurants could run down their stocks and prepare for the closure. Why only 9 days? Well for two reasons. Firstly most people show signs of the virus within 5 days. So if you did this now you could stop people spreading the virus before showing sighs. Also the people that self identify as having symptoms could continue self isolating till the are cleared. Also the very maximum it's believed the virus can stay active on a surface is 9 days. So if you shut a building down for 9 days you have effectively given it a virus clean for free.

    Also during this 9 day period we can build up supplies of test and face masks. Do what we are doing now of seeing what firms can help by quickly changing their manufacturing into making something that is needed. From toilet rolls to ventilators. I think some of the science advice has been shockingly bad. Things like you should self isolate for 7 days if you feel like you have the virus. But no explanation as to why 7 days. I think there should be much more communication on why decisions are made, what the timetables are likely to be and how we are accurately doing. It should also be cross party work on this. We really need all the MPs to work together to do the best thing rather than use it as a point scoring exercise.

    It's also quite telling on the Just In Time (JIT) manufacturing that we have been boasting about for so long. Nicely modelling supply and demand and producing just the right amount of goods every now and again. We don't waste so much money storing huge supplies in warehouses. On the plus side there are things like 3D printing and some easily reconfigurable manufacturing facilities that we could possibly switch to make some of the stuff we need. With CAD and other software it would be quite easy to post out parts needed and whoever can supply a piece chips in. You could have a few hundred people home 3D printing washers needed, CNC machines around the country making the parts they can, while production lines are converted to put them together.

    5th March 1 death
    10th 2 deaths ---> Actual deaths 6
    15th 4 deaths <---- We are here with 35 dead.
    20th 8 deaths
    25th 16 deaths
    30th 32 deaths
    4th April 64 deaths
    9th 128 deaths
    14th 256 deaths
    19st 512 deaths
    24th 1,024 deaths
    29th 2,048 deaths
    4th May 4,096 deaths
    9th 8,192 deaths
    14th 16,384 deaths
    19th 32,768 deaths
    24th 65,536 deaths
     
  6. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Location:
    UK
    Been looking for a good daily stat on this.

    Today the number of daily deaths around the world will likely top tat low end 795 per day deaths. Yesterday was 686 deaths in the day. Obviously that's an average so you would need to have that or more every day from here to the end of the year. Which at the moment don't seem that unlikely. I think we smash that 290,000 figure over the summer and probably have a few million by the end of the year.

    The virus deniers seem to have changed tack now to say face masks don't work. Well it appears that the amount of virus you are exposed to can drastically change how bad you get it. If you pick up a few bits on your hands that manage to get into your body. Then your body detects it early and starts working out how to fight it while it's a low dose. If you get a massive amount, say someone sneezes on you, then it grows really quickly and your body has to work harder to fight it.

    So while a face mask might not give you 100% immunity then it might reduce the payload you receive, or give meaning the virus spreads slower. Face masks do help and we should be getting everyone in the world wearing them for a while as we get it under control. Guess there is a recycling challenge there too. The main thing with face masks is you can open up more places and reduce the risk of spread so people don't need to be isolated for weeks or months. What we really should be saying is you will be isolated until we have enough masks in your area.
     
  7. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Location:
    UK
    So, from the start I've mainly been tracking the number of deaths. The reason for that is we don't really know how many people have it as we are not testing nearly enough people. If I got the UK testing increase about right then I think we are testing a few thousand people a day at most. apparently not even enough test kits to test everyone in the NHS, out front-line! On the number of dead each day and in total, we are about two weeks behind Italy. That means we have a couple more days of double digit deaths per day before we get to triple digit numbers. Then 12-14 days before we get into the thousands per day. If we don't get on top of it within the two weeks after that... Well the numbers could be really scary. If we are going to learn from other countries we don't have long to do it. As there is a definite lag of a few weeks before any measures see results and the number are going up 10x every two weeks. Scary maths.

    Then the government here in the UK decided to not close all the restaurants and entertainment places... Just tell the whole nation not to go. No word of financial support and you have thousands of small business without income or the protection they get from a government shutdown. We really don't seem to be making a very good job of this.
     
  8. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Location:
    UK
    Well I think we can rule out a summer rest bite like we get from the flu. This one seems to be starting to spread in all sorts of countries and climates. Data is still quite sparse and you have to factor in air conditioned buildings and the like, where it can spread whatever the outside conditions. Though my gut instinct is that we don't see a dramatic drop off in the summer because of the weather. If Italy is anything to go by then lock down takes time work as they are still seeing a sizeable number of deaths and new cases discovered every day.

    It seems to be spreading throughout Africa at the moment, they are at least a month or so behind. unless it's being under-report or not detected out there. I think this is going to hit Africa very hard. Most work with little or not protection and maybe not even a contract. I think social isolation will be hard for some cultures to accept. Hand washing resources like soap and clean water are not as prevalent as some places. The governments don't have as much resources to pull on and some of the worst government may use this for social cleansing or not care how many die. I really hope the World Bank can step in soon enough and help Africa tackle this but as the rest of the world have their own problems I can see the African problem slipping down the agenda. Unfortunately I see Africa as being the 'see what could have happened here' example at the end of this.

    Then there seems to be the UK style policy of let's try and get as much heard immunity which is probably not a good idea. The concept seems to be that if you just allow as many people as possible to get it before the lock down, then you have a better chance of more people being immune once you start letting people out again. Thus avoiding a second boom when you relax the restrictions. Now that sounds like a sane mathematical model, you can have a million deaths in one go or over a couple of years type call. Except this virus is barely 6 months old, already broken into at least two major strains. Who knows how it will evolve over time or how long anyone stays immune for. For all we know you could end up with the same multiple outbreaks but more dead before we work out a vaccine or effective treatment.

    The only sane thing to do, in my opinion, is shut everything down as quickly as possible. I heard today of postal workers in Italy are still working and demanding to shut the post offices. I would have done this on day one of the lock down. One infected post person could infect how many people?! People doing food prep, home deliveries and the like should be tested daily and given face masks asap. In fact I think we could carry on almost as normal if everyone wore face masks but 'how do you provide enough face masks for the world?' sounds like one of those unanswerable questions Google uses in job interviews.
     
  9. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Location:
    UK
    https://hackaday.com/2020/03/12/ult...-design-and-deploy-an-open-source-ventilator/

    Love this idea. I did a little searching on the history and types of ventilators and it's not a trivial task. There seems to be a number of complex factors like maintaining pressure and keeping it safe to use for long periods. I think theses are going to be running round the clock. Hackaday are the perfect sort of body to pull together the experts needed, especially as a lot of them may be locked in isolation with nothing else to do. Already people have been thinking the problem through and looking at things like how to make more pure (medical grade) oxygen on site and the like. Hopefully this and other similar projects can come up with the right technical blueprint to cheaply and effectively find a technical solution that may save lives... Because you have to think there are companies out there looking to get rich off patents they own via drugs or technology. Would be good if there was a nice open source hack that just saved lives without making some corporation richer.

    There was a report the other day from one of the top ventilator makers in the UK. They were saying it's impossible for others to step in and make them. You have to wonder if that was out of pure desperation that their golden goose may be about to be slaughtered as a thousand companies work out how to make ventilators. I guess after this epidemic there will be a lot more ventilators in the world and that might be a good thing for poorer countries that can't afford to buy many. There will be countries giving them away in a few years time.
     
  10. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Location:
    UK
    * assuming virus is doubling every 5 days total deaths not deaths per day.

    5th March 1 death
    10th 2 deaths ---> Actual deaths 6 (6x in 5 days)
    15th 4 deaths ----> Actual deaths 35 (over 5.8x 5 days ago)
    20th 8 deaths <---- Today at 177 dead (5x 5 days ago)
    25th 16 deaths
    30th 32 deaths
    4th April 64 deaths
    9th 128 deaths
    14th 256 deaths
    19st 512 deaths
    24th 1,024 deaths
    29th 2,048 deaths
    4th May 4,096 deaths
    9th 8,192 deaths
    14th 16,384 deaths
    19th 32,768 deaths
    24th 65,536 deaths

    Well I think we can safely say that the rate of doubling, for deaths at least, is closer to 2.5 days than 5. So these conservative numbers I put up seem very conservative. Which would mean in 5 days time it's looking like we would have 500+ dead and by the end of the month 1,000+. That would make next months figures really dire with a potential 10,000 dead by the end of April... Hopefully the self isolating will kick in within 2-4 weeks and the numbers will start to drop but that really depends on how good we are at self isolating. It only takes a few people to keep it spreading. The rate of change is slowing a bit, have to wonder if there were a few unreported deaths before the first one we know about. It does look like it's heading towards a 2 times increase every 5 days within a week or two but really hard to make mathematical models with such incomplete data.

    In South Korea there is the story of 'Patient 31' who was diagnosed with the virus and told to self isolate. They did not and went on to directly infect a lot of people, who went on to infect a lot more people and ultimately took the country from the containment stage to the too many to contain stage single handedly.

    I can't say I agree with our governments slow shutdown plan, got to say I would have shut everything down until we at least have enough test kits and masks to supply the medical and other essential staff. If you were going for the heard immunity target I'd go for lock down now. Once every two weeks have an 'open as usual' day. Obviously it would be best if you could get all the people wearing face mask on that day to help stop the spread. This would give both business and staff the chance to make a bit of money over the trying times. If you don't get a massive spike over the new two weeks you could go for open for two days shut for the next 12 or one day a week. Slowly build up working days till we get to heard immunity slowly and keeping a trickle of the economy working.

    The other factor to take in is the increasing reports that the people who have recovered may have reduced lung capacity. It's not certain yet how much, how many are affected or how permanent it is but I also fear that once we get back to the usual levels of air pollution there could be a silent number of people, some of whom may not even realise they have had the virus, who suddenly find it hard to breath. Maybe even other complications further down the line. It does seem it was right for the world to take this seriously, the question is still have they taken it seriously enough?
     
    Last edited: 21 Mar 2020
  11. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Location:
    UK
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51914722

    Here's a nice positive story to come out of the crisis.

    It seems to be an autonomous robot with a very powerful UV light. I presume the idea is it can move around so that as many surfaces as possible get zapped with enough UV light to kill all bugs. As it would not be good for humans to be in the same room as that level of UV light then it's a perfect thing to have automated. I also presume that it allows you to use less chemicals to clean an area which is an environmental benefit. Lets hope the sudden boost in demand for some of these sort of new technological solutions may help them to reduce in price.

    https://www.medicaldevice-network.com/news/3d-printed-valves-covid-19-italy/

    On the other hand it seems the lucrative medical patent holders are fighting to protect their little gold mines. Don't want the world to know that those $11,000 valves cost $1 to make. Maybe we will see some medical patents fall into public domain over this as the world wakes up to how much money some people are making off the medical industry. What we really need is cheap, effective and scalable health solutions.
     
  12. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Location:
    UK
    . https://foldingathome.org/2020/03/1...e-doing-and-how-you-can-help-in-simple-terms/

    Ok lets start with a nice positive. Folding@Home, if you don't know is a distributed number cruncher that can be used for things like SETI, cancer research and other problems. Protein folding is a potentially useful resource for fighting the virus and they set up an easy way to utilise your graphics cards to help. Obviously the more people at home the more there are to have a play around with things like this. The push for more processing power has seen them have insane amounts of data coming in. In fact too much! Their servers can't cope with all the data coming in. Don't worry though, there are business in the tech world that have already realised the problem and are reaching out to the folding project offering more bandwidth and help. As it's a distributed network, it appeases it's quite scalable. So hopefully within a few days there may be the world's largest distributed super computer crunching all the data the scientists all over the world need to get on top of this global problem as quickly as possible.

    Date, Total deaths, percentage change.
    Mar. 20, 11,387 14%
    Mar. 19, 10,031 12%
    Mar. 18, 8,951 12%
    Mar. 17, 7,978 11%
    Mar. 16, 7,161 10%
    Mar. 15, 6,519 12%

    Unsurprising with the exponential growth curves the amount of deaths is increasing day on day and rate of change is increasing. About 1,000 two days ago and 1,350 yesterday. With quite a few countries already in the double digits of deaths every day it's not going to be long before those numbers really start to add up.

    I found this great visualisation of how bad it is compared to other outbreaks.

    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/

    It's updated dynamically so you can track it's progress. Currently it's just surpassed Ebola which has had 11.3k deaths. It's an interesting chart as to what people are talking about. It's already surpassed the usual comparisons of SARA, MERS and a lot of people are saying it's the worst outbreak since Swine Flu in 2009-10 which clocked in at 200k, which I think we will surpass before the end of this month. Other have been comparing it to the Hong Kong flu in the late 60s which clocked in at 1 million dead. Likely to smash that too a few days later. Then you have the big bad one everyone is looking back to in the Spanish Flu with 40-50 million dead. What's more interesting is the ones they don't mention. Like Aids/HIV and Smallpox. Both of which are still active but somewhat under control.

    I'm surprised more people don't refer back to Aids/HIV as it's within the living memory of most people, 25-35 million died from it and I still remember the Don't Die From Ignorance campaign from the 80s. Also Smallpox, which apparently was so bad that it was one of the first virus' to have a vaccine developed to fight it. That has still killed 56 million so far making it second only to the mighty Black Death which wiped out an impressive 200 million people. It's also worth taking into account the global population figures at the times of these outbreaks. For Black Death in the 1300s the global population was a third of a billion so it was a massive impact. By the time of the Spanish Flu there was 1.6 billion, for Aids/HIV there was 4.5 billion and for Swine flu it was close to 7 billion. Today it's about 7.8 Billion people with an increase in the region on 80 million from last year.

    This puts a couple of things into perspective. Firstly this virus would have to kill over 80 million to have any real impact on the global population. Obviously if it gets into the 10s millions then it's going to slow down the rate of growth, maybe, and reduce the growth of the global population. But anything over 80 million would actually see the global population fall. Which I don't think we have seen before, certainly not since accurate records have been around.

    The other thing it highlights is that there is just under twice as many people on this planet to when Aids/HIV kicked off and about five times that of the Spanish Flu. If this was to have a similar impact as either of them then adjusted for the current population it would be up to 70 million from Aids/HIV and 250 million for Spanish Flu. That would push us into the more deaths than births territory. Especially if we get knock on deaths from otherwise treatable problems that can't be saved because the hospitals are overloaded.

    The world is watching and waiting for the Italian figures to start falling but they are still going up and fast. they had 7 days in the 100-250 deaths per day range, followed three days in the 300s, two in the 400s than jumped up to 600+ yesterday. If the numbers don't drop off and soon, then it's going to get really bad in Italy and not look good for the dozens of countries a few days/weeks behind them. From a quick estimate from figures I could find, Italy seems to have an average on 1,600 deaths per day. so they are having to deal with 50% more dead people than usual. That's not easy to scale up. Within a few days that could be up to 100% more than usual. That's going to be a big tipping point.
     
  13. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Location:
    UK
    The news from Italy really seems to be that if you want to stop this thing you have to totally lock everything down. I believe in China you were not allowed to leave your apartment building or home and no one was allowed in. Food was delivered to the outside of the premises any you would only be allowed to leave, pick up the food and head straight back in. It seems the longer you delay this the worst it gets. It seems that most of Europe is not really acting quick enough and doing the bit by bit method of slowly closing things down. Really we should be working as fast as possible to keep all but essential staff locked up inside. Close all the shops including supermarkets. Start delivering food to people's doors and stopping anyone leaving the house for a few weeks. That seems to be the best way to stop this thing spreading. Of course you want to regularly test the people still working in hospitals and food industries, delivery drivers and anyone else that can go out and about. Give them protection too, face masks, gloves and whatever they need to stay sage. But even if you only have a few cases you need to lock down the whole country asap and just make sure you can feed your people and keep them financially afloat.
     
  14. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Location:
    UK
    There has been a lot of talk about being OK once we get a vaccine but it looks like that might be very hard. There are a few main problems, firstly it appears the damage is mostly caused but our own immune systems not being able to differentiate between infected cells and non-infected ones and basically blasting everything in sight. Another is that you may risk affecting other organs if you get it wrong.

    But... The whole world is looking for an answer and that's good right? Together we can crack this and then we will be OK... Except will we? One problem I see is that there could be a lot of money in a solution. So there is going to be the pressure to fast-track something that looks promising. Maybe we can skip animal test and go straight to testing on humans or if it works on a few dozen then roll it out to 10,000s. Maybe even some shady companies might team up with, shall we say less scrupulous governments to try it out in secret trials and see if it kills lots of people.

    There is the potential that lots of people are actually killed in our quest to find the solution and as it's such a fast moving timeline, if we get a vaccine that causes problems a few years down the line, then we could have another wave of problems to follow up the current viral outbreak.
     
  15. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Location:
    UK
    Well great news today, over half the UK has been infected and we have only had less that 500 deaths.... According to a few people at Oxford anyway. The 'news' seems to be spreading faster than the virus. I'll not link to the article because they don't seem to have released a real scientific paper on it yet, it's not been peer reviewed and this critique of it seem to sum it up much better.

    https://medium.com/@gidmk/coronavir...-than-half-of-the-united-kingdom-50e4fba32552

    I think the most scary thing about this is it will make some people think it's all over and nothing to worry about. As we have discovered it don't take many people to keep this thing spreading.

    Yesterday France hit the unfortunate 1k club becoming the 5th country to have over 1,000 deaths from this. globally we hit 2k deaths 5 days after reaching 1k, so it looks like it's still doubling every 5 days.

    There was also reports that the number of deaths were dropping in Italy a few days ago but it appears that may have been a data collection problem where some hospitals were struggling to keep up with the paperwork and submit their data. It does seem to be levelling off a bit though. The next few days will be telling. If it jumps up over 1k per day then it would indicate it's still growing, if it's under 1k for the next 5 days then I think we can safely say that they had hit their inflection point. Spain seems to be a few days behind Italy, France a few more days and the UK still about 14 days behind.

    According to this list...

    https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/best-healthcare-in-the-world/

    France and Italy have the best health care in the world. Spain comes in at No. 7. The UK and Netherlands are 17th & 18th and I think both seem on track to really get hit hard by this. Both have not done nearly enough testing and seem complacent about it. Germany is even further down the list, maybe that's why they have been taking it more seriously.
     
  16. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Location:
    UK
    So the gov/NHS decided to change when they release the data on the 25th so it's unclear exactly what the real number should have been on that day. Hence why I waited a bit before updating this. This seems to be a natural course of action for countries when they hit the massive boom stage. The figures for the 26th were +115 and today are +181 so it seems like we are really at the 'this is really getting serious stage' here in the UK. The rate at which the UK is growing seems to be doubling every 3 days rather than 5 days which puts us on track to hit the numbers for the end of April in the table below by the end of March. Considering this country seems to have been going for the very slow gradual shutdown rather than the fast response it looks like number of deaths could get scary before we reach any sort of peak.

    The revised estimates are once again conservative using the 2.6x increase over the last 5 days of data, which I believe is low because of the changes in the reporting but obviously the fact some people are self isolating will hopefully help keep those numbers down. In Italy they have had a week now with the numbers floating around the 600-700 increase per day range which means they have flattened the curve a bit. Though it's not dropping off as drastically as it rose so hard to say how long they will maintain these figures. If we are still 14 days behind Italy and follow the same curve then we would hit our peak in about 10 days time then maintain +/- 100 that sort of number for the next week.

    5th March 1 death
    10th 2 deaths ---> Actual deaths 6 (6x in 5 days)
    15th 4 deaths ----> Actual deaths 35 (over 5.8x 5 days ago)
    20th 8 deaths ----> 177 deaths (5x 5 days ago)
    25th 16 deaths <----- 463 dead (2.6x increase) Incomplete data as the timing of releasing data changed
    30th 32 deaths (Revised estimate 1,203)
    4th April 64 deaths (Revised estimate 3,129)
    9th 128 deaths (Revised estimate 8,137)
    14th 256 deaths (Revised estimate 21,157)
    19st 512 deaths (Revised estimate 55,010)
    24th 1,024 deaths (Revised estimate 143,028)
    29th 2,048 deaths (Revised estimate 371,872)
    4th May 4,096 deaths
    9th 8,192 deaths
    14th 16,384 deaths
    19th 32,768 deaths
    24th 65,536 deaths
     
  17. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Location:
    UK
    I think one of the nice things to come out of this is the global support from some people and companies. Whether it be some rich people donating money to help fight it or companies chipping in to make some of the medical items needed to save lives. Together we can help beat this problem, though the one thing that seems to be holding us back is many governments who seem to be putting big business and the economy before the well being of the public.

    https://www.pmldaily.com/news/2020/...itizens-affected-by-coronavirus-lockdown.html

    From what I hear out of Rwanda they are doing the right things in their African country. One of the first in the continent to lock down the country and are using their food reserves to feed the needy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environ...es-to-fly-in-farm-workers-from-eastern-europe

    While here in the UK we are contemplating shipping in workers from other countries to work on farms at a huge cost while we have millions sitting inside and probably more than 90,000 who would be willing to take these jobs... Why are we not using local people? Well the only reason I can imagine is because the working conditions are so bad on these farms that we don't want the general public realising how bad we treat foreign workers that typically do these jobs. Rather than improve the conditions on the farms we would rather spend a small fortune shipping in people from other countries and maintain the poor working conditions.

    This virus really seems to be highlighting the differences in governments around the world and I think once it's all over there are going to be some hard questions asked in some countries.