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2010-2020 The decade review.

Discussion in 'The Coffee Shop' started by amusicsite, 5 Nov 2019.

  1. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Location:
    UK
    I know I'm starting this a bit early but it's a low volume site and wow, what a decade!

    I think this has probably seen the most rapid advancement in humankind that we have ever seen. The funny thing is, for us in the richer parts of the world at least, we seem to have got used to these changes. If not expect them...

    So let's start this off with a look at 10 years ago.

    Firstly this forum was not on the internet, started by Shaun in 2011 I believe. At the end of 2009 forums were a lot bigger. flickr was still popular and myspace had fallen from grace as the upstart Facebook had rapidly grown to 350 million users.

    There were 1.73 billion people online worldwide compared to 4.39 billion now. That's over one third of the global population has gone online for the first time in the last decade. That's people with a regular connection to the internet, I'd image there are another billion or two that have come in contact with the internet for the first time.

    Internet Explorer was king and Chrome was the new kid on the block. 40% of us had 1024x768 screens. Mobile phone internet use was only a few percent and top of the range from Apple was the iPhone 3GS. Symbian was bigger than iOS and Windows 7 had just come out. Microsoft was heavily promoting Windows Phone after the hell of moving away from Windows Mobile 6.5 and Android was just starting to look like it might have potential. The 4G networks were in their test stages. While the Palm Pre vision looked good but failed, though now the OS run on half the TVs.

    On the subject of TVs. The new HDTVs had just convinced most people to get their first heavy flat tv with an impressive bevel. 3D had just died and Plasma TVs were still considered superior to LED. Breaking Bad was on season 2 and Lost was becoming a joke at season 5. Oh and OLED was going to be the next big thing, no change there.

    On the big screen Avatar was the film to beat. Slumdog Millionaire had cleaned up at the Oscars. While Blockbusters or the Netflix postal service were where you got your movie fix. Lady Gaga and Black Eyed Peas topped the music charts. In the the gaming world the PS3 had just got slimmer and the Xbox 360 did the same shortly after. Nintendo were basking in the Wii heyday. While Left 4 Dead 2 and Assassin's Creed II had everyone playing sequels. Also people were starting to think Half-Life 2: Episode Three may never come out.... Minecraft had just come out.

    Toyota Prius was all the rage in the car world. Either loved or mocked. The Waymo self driving car project was starting up along with Uber and Kickstarter. NASA's Kepler Mission and Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter had just launched, water was found on the moon. The Space Shuttle was still flying. New Horizons was on it's way to Pluto, Dawn had just passed Mars on it's way to Vesta and Ceres. While the Japaneses had just returned Hayabusa after landing on an asteroid and collected samples. The Europeans were gearing up to launch their new Galileo GPS system and the Large Hadron Collider was just about finished.

    The Copenhagen Summit had concluded we really should do something about this climate change thing. The Paris agreement was still 5 years off. Anti-vaxxer made it into common language with the MMR vaccine scare. Solar and wind power generation prices were starting to drop fast. China's Three Gorges Dam was still being built.

    Netbooks were the new trend and Google where gearing up to take over this market with their new ChromeOS, while phones had just started to be able to do maps with GPS. After a life long beta period Gmail had just gone live. No more invite only sign up. USB had just got v3.0. AMD had just launched the first 4 core processor. Ebooks were all the craze.

    https://www.forbes.com/2010/04/08/john-maeda-design-technology-data-companies-10-keynote.html

    Forbes predictions were ubiquitous computing, something like checking your phone every 5 minutes without thinking of it as a computer...

    Then that software, still at the time mainly got on shinny discs, would be replaced by apps that anyone could make.
     
  2. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Location:
    UK
    So lets get down to what has changed and to start with I'd like to nominate Elon Musk as man of the decade.

    10 years ago he was the dude who had just sold PayPal and got a few hundred million in the bank. People were wondering if he was just about to have burnt all that money on his toy rocket company.

    Then he launched SpaceX onto space properly and totally shook up the space launch industry within decade. From totally reusable rockets, landing on a ship, catching the fairings and ending the decade with the launch of the 75th Falcon 9 rocket. The booster on this mission is flying for the forth time in 10 months. One off the fairings is being flown for the second time and they are trying to recover all the bits again. This mission is risky as they are doing a lot of things not proven before... But they have come up with the perfect solution to this. They are using it to launch another 60 Starlink satellites. These are their own payload they can use of risky launches, so if a few go boom it don't matter as they can knock out another 60 of these quite quickly. In fact that's the idea. They want to put up 10,000s of these to cover the whole planet with a global internet system. On schedule to launch in places next year, where it will start generating them money from their test launches!

    It's gone though four iterations of it's Falcon. Used the Dragon supply craft to send stuff to the ISS and are close to completing their version for sending humans. Then there is the crazy Starship thing they are currently working on.

    That alone would make him a contender. Yet he still had time to start a car company and shake that up too. From nothing they have built the mega factory in America gone from making 15,000 cars in their first year to being on target to top half a million next year and with the Chinese factory launching next year maybe closer to a million cars... And not just cars. Trucks too with the Tesla Semi and new pickup truck coming soon.

    If that's not enough transportation for you then he set up the Boring company to make tunnels and the Hyperloop system to use them.

    Throw in a bit of OpenAI and the stuff done with self driving. It's been quite a good decade for him and his companies.
     
  3. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Location:
    UK
    On the environment front...

    Well it was a funny decade for the environment. On one hand the world has gone from climategate nonsense to the world agreeing something needs to be done in the Paris summit, then on to America electing a fossil as president and finishing the decade with young girl spearheading a climate rebellion.

    On the other hand, the amount of pollution, co2 in the atmosphere, amount of ice loss and temperatures have continued to rise.

    For green technology it's been a rapid growth decade. With solar and wind generated electricity prices falling year on year and ending the decade as one of the cheapest and most efficient ways of generating electricity. Because of this wind and solar combined has gone from a niche sector to the fastest growing energy generating sector. It's now about at the level now where it's adding more or less the same capacity globally as the increase in demand and looking good to start eating into the existing fossil fuel generated power over the next decade.

    On the consumer technology side of things there has been good and bad. On the good side energy efficiency has improved drastically with things like TVs, computers, white goods and electric motors being much more efficient now than 10 years ago. Helping reduce the amount of electrical power you need to generate. Even the fact that most people these days do tasks on a mobile phone rather than turn on a PC or laptop means they are using less power. On the darker side is the 'made to last 2 years' mentality that industries like phones and even chromebooks have built in with OS updates being dropped after a number of years. Or devices being impossible to repair, or impossible to get parts and other tricks to try and keep customers coming back for more. The best way to make an environmentally friendly product is to make one that can be easily repaired and will last a long time. Then there is the whole bitcoin mining craze this decade, how much energy and resources have been used on mining digital currencies around the world?

    There is obviously one industry that has been forced to change and that's the car industry. Going electric has been a big expense and changes the whole dynamic of how you make vehicles as well as how you make money off them. With the potential of self driving taxis that can drive all day every day and the increased popularity of leasing a car rather than splashing out I large lump sum every few years. This has created a subset of new companies looking at building vehicles to last as long as possible so you can lease them for longer without having to replace it. I think the seeds are being sown for a new mandate for our goods. The longer they last the better they are could be a matrix that affects our purchasing decisions.

    One of the biggest problems with renewable power generation and electrification of fossil fuel uses has been storing electricity. That's come a long way this decade too. From better portable batteries to grid scale super batteries, this decade has seen enormous improvements and increase in storage. One of the unsung advantages these battery improvements has made is on the national grid. There are many batteries now attached to the grid from thousands of home batteries to hundreds for electric car charging stations and an increasing number in sub stations. This has allowed the grid to tap into this power reserve and use it to better load balance the grid. Part of the reason we have had long periods without using any coal to make electricity is because in times of high load the grid can tap into the batteries and not need to ramp up the old coal stations. Also it allows natural gas generators run at optimal efficiency for longer rather than having to keep ramp them up and down. Over the next decade we could install enough battery backup on the grid to keep the lights on for hours, days or even weeks.

    As far as mother nature's take on it. We have seen a dramatic increase in sever weather events, drastic reduction in global sea ice extent and stability. Shocking pictures appearing of glaciers retreating fast compared even to 10 years ago. Nature is running to try and keep up, with plants ideal growing regions starting to change. Animals and marine life moving with the climate change. Lakes drying up in some places while others have increased risk of flooding.

    Sea levels have gone up about 7cm in the last decade but the oceans have soaked up a lot more heat energy and most are predicting a trigger point where you might get a run away effect, drastically increasing the speed of sea level rise.

    So in summary it seems like the last decade could go down in history as when the world polluted Earth the most. While also going down as the decade we solved a lot of the problems stopping us polluting the Earth. So by the end of the next decade we could be in a position to slash our pollution to a level we have not seen in many decades but the impact of the pollution we have made getting to this position will have a dramatic impact on the whole world throughout the next decade. Globally we need to support and rapidly roll out the new cleaner technologies as fast as possible over the next decade, political will seems the hardest and final hurdle we need to overcome.
     
  4. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Location:
    UK
    Hardware changes

    SSD

    10: 80GB $205 or $2.56 per GB at 70 MB/s
    20: 500GB $95 or $0.19 per GB at 6Gb/s

    CPU - Most powerful

    10: Intel Core i7-980X Extreme Edition $1,100
    20: Ryzen 7 3800x $565

    Clockspeed has only marginally increased from 3.3GHz - 3.8GHz but the Turbo Speed has gone from 3.6GHz - 4.6GHz

    From 6 to 12 cores and more efficient at 105W down from 130W.

    About twice as powerful for half the price.

    GPU

    10: Nvidia GeForce GTX 580 $450
    20: Nvidia GeForce RTX 2080 Ti $1,100

    400% - 600% faster. For modern tests you go from 100fps to 500fps. Though over twice the price.

    Ram

    10: DDR3 SDRAM maximum transfer rate of 6400 MB/s.
    20: DDR5 SDRAM speed of 32 GB/s per channel and 2 memory channels per module. * in final stages of design due out next year.

    Wifi

    10: 802.11n 72 Mbit/s with a single spatial stream and 600 Mbit/s with the use of four spatial streams.
    20: 802.11ax (Wi-Fi 6) 11 Gbit/s of theoretical data rate though currently real world seems to be about 5Gbit/s.

    Mobile phones

    10: 4G networks 100Mb/s - 1Gb/s best phone Apple iPhone 3GS
    20: 5G 2Gbit/s best phone Samsung Galaxy S10

    Music
    10: iPod nano $149 for 8GB 50 million ipods sold in 2009 to almost none now
    20: Spotify free or $9.99 per month. Over 50 million songs, 100 million paid subscribers and 250 million active monthly users 2010 only a few users.

    Music listening has changed a lot. It's much easier to listen to music on TVs, phones and other connected devices like smart speakers. Physical sales have plummeted and online streaming has even overtaken downloading music. Earphones are increasingly wireless and noise cancellation is becoming mainstream.

    TV

    10: Samsung UNC7000 series LED-based LCD $3,300 240Hz refresh rate HD and 3D
    20: LG Electronics OLED55B9PLA 55-Inch UHD 4K HDR Smart OLED TV with Freeview Play £1,100

    They have gone from HD with Ethernet only connections, LED and basic menus to 4K, wifi, 'smart', apps, HDR OLED.

    Blu-ray was king of content in 2009 while now the streaming kings are battling it out. Nexflix has the lead though most Brits could not live without iplayer. Cable/Satellite tv seems to have stalled. They have added more channels but mostly +1, HD, 4k, +24 or +1 week repeat/alternative versions. Added apps like Nexflix and iplayer to make it all in one. As well as all having the ability to record multiple programs at once.

    Camera

    10: 12MP DSLR cameras which if your lucky shoot video at HD
    20: 25MP Mirrorless, touch screen, wifi, 4k movies and face recognition auto focus.

    Consoles

    10: Xbox 360, PlayStation 3 slim, Wii
    20: Xbox One S, PlayStation 4 Pro, Nintendo Switch

    High end game example 2009

    View: https://youtu.be/xFajRU4xAVI


    2019

    View: https://youtu.be/Dw_oH5oiUSE


    As well as the announcement of the next generation from Sony and Microsoft announced for next year with much more power and speed.
     
  5. amusicsite

    amusicsite dn ʎɐʍ sᴉɥ┴ Staff Member

    Location:
    UK
    One thing that has come a long way is open source software. Ubuntu have had a very good decade with expansion into the cloud server space, good popular desktop version and plenty of development ups and downs. Including it’s experiment with it’s own Unity desktop environment before switching back to GNOME. It’s now got dozens of spin-offs based on it’s code. Canonical even tried to get it working on smart phones with their Touch version and $32 million crowdfunded Edge phone, which never really took off.

    While it is yet another decade where Linux has not taken over the desktop… It is the decade I’ve started using it as my daily driver. I still use Windows for the odd job but on the whole Linux is a stable and fully useable platform for most common tasks. This has been helped by the advance of Chromebooks and how the world has gone online for so many tasks. On the browser front Firefox took a few years to crack multi-CPU optimism and GPU rendering and lost a lot of market share to Chrome. Towards the end of the decade they had caught up and emphasis on privacy seems to be their tactic to try and claw back their market share. As for Thunderbird, that seems to have stalled in moving forwards but is still a rock solid email client. As for the office suites, the decade started with Apache taking over OpenOffice but LibreOffice seems to have taken over the offline open source Office market. It’s a good solid suite of tools these days too… Though once again online has the lions share with 365 and Gdocs offering reasonable products that are widely used.

    For the creative side GIMP got a massive engine overhaul to make it easier to expand it with version 2.10 and made it a much more compelling bit of software. As for 3D software Blender it got a much improved redering engine Cycles and slowly improved over the decade but like with GIMP it was it’s big overhaul in version 2.8 which made it feel much easier to use and added it’s realtime rendering engine. For online streaming OBS seems to be a solid solution many people use. In fact more and more of the creative tools seem to be gaining traction.

    For gaming and windows stuff on Linux this decade saw the launch of the Steam client for Linux and later integration with Wine/Proton to make it easier to play widows games on Linux. Then there was Vulkan, the API to take on Window’s Direct3D domination. Which with support from Valve and Google’s new streaming service could make gaming on Linux better in the future.

    In fact, if you look at the list of open source software around now compared to 10 years ago, there is a lot of choice of good quality software to do almost anything. Yes some things like video editors may not quite be up to the quality of the big boys but in almost every area the quality of the open source solutions these days is not far off the commercial offerings. It’s never been easier to switch to full open source solutions. Still a way to go but if the solutions improve as much over the next decade as they have this one then I think they world might be ready to move over to open source.